How to Create, Use, and Assess Scenarios

Auteur: Chermack, Thomas
Editeur: Berrett-Koehler Publishers
Publication: 2011
Edition n°:
ISBN: 978-1-60509413-7
e-ISBN:
 
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- Offers a comprehensive review of both the theory and practice of scenario planning
- The only scenario planning book to address scenario implementation and assessment
- Includes a casestudy to illustrate how the scenario planning system is applied in the real world

Scenario planning helps leaders, executives and decision-makers envision and develop strategies for multiple possible futures instead of just one. It enables organizations to become resilient and agile, carefully calibrating their responses and adapting quickly to new circumstances in a fast-changing environment.

This book is the most comprehensive treatment to date of the scenario planning process. Unlike existing books it offers a thorough discussion of the evolution and theoretical foundations of scenario planning, examining its connections to learning theory, decision-making theory, mental model theory and more. Chermack emphasizes that scenario planning is far more than a simple set of steps to follow, as so many other practice-focused books do -- he addresses the subtleties and complexities of planning. And, unique among scenario planning books, he deals not just with developing different scenarios but also with applying scenarios once they have been constructed, and assessing the impact of the scenario project.

Using a case study based on a real scenario project, Chermack lays out a comprehensive five phase scenario planning system -- project preparation, scenario exploration, scenario development, scenario implementation, and project assessment. Each chapter describes specific techniques for gathering and analyzing relevant data with a particular emphasis on the use of workshops to encourage dialogue. He offers a worksheet to help readers structure and manage scenario projects as well as avoid common pitfalls, and a discussion, based in recent neurological findings, of how scenario planning helps people to overcome barriers to creative thinking.

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